These past couple of days, I've been watching that rate thing again... To put it simply, it doesn't directly determine whether the coin's price goes up or down, but it decides whether everyone dares to move cash out of "certainty." When interest rates are high, even someone like me who talks about long-term holds will unconsciously start to reduce positions: not necessarily completely sell out, but cut down on the high-volatility part first, leaving some bullets. Conversely, once the market feels "rate hikes are almost over," risk appetite opens up like a floodgate, on-chain activity and social media buzz start to heat up first, prices may not have moved yet, but people are already moving.

Recently, the upgrade/maintenance of that mainstream public chain was quite interesting; everyone was shouting "Will there be a migration?" while also unable to resist betting on the emotional premium of small ecosystem tokens... I looked at on-chain data, and it actually doesn't quite match up—discussion heat is skyrocketing faster than actual usage, a pretty typical divergence.

Next time, I might be more mechanical: first look at rate expectations and dollar liquidity trends, then decide "Am I adding to my position or just looking for some excitement." Do you believe macro trends lead first, or on-chain activity?