The biggest signal from the Federal Reserve this time isn't actually "holding interest rates steady."

It's that internal divisions have already become quite apparent.

The 8-4 voting result, frankly, means some people already feel that high interest rates are pushing the economy to the brink of collapse, but another faction is still worried about inflation making a comeback.

Powell's current stance is also very realistic: not cutting rates, as economic pressure is mounting; cutting too early, and risking the past two years of rate hikes being in vain.
So the market is gradually starting to understand that in the second half of the year, it's not about "whether to cut rates," but about how long the Fed can hold on.

Many still fantasize that as soon as rates are cut, US stocks and BTC will immediately soar.
But the reality might not be that simple. Because historically, the first rate cut often signals that the economy has already started to show problems.

Right now, the US economy looks okay on the surface, but internally, cracks are beginning to show.
Consumer spending isn't as strong as before, corporate financing is getting harder, fiscal interest burdens are increasing, and issues in commercial real estate continue to weigh on the market.

So the current market situation is far from ideal; people still talk about a bull market, but capital is becoming more cautious.
The real main theme is still liquidity. Assets like AI, tech giants, and BTC are still strong, but essentially, the market is pricing in expectations of future easing ahead of time, not because the economy is truly healthy.

Therefore, I personally think there's still a chance of rate cuts in the second half of the year, but more like "taking a breather," not restarting an era of unlimited easing.
The real key isn't the rate cut itself, but when the Fed is willing to reintroduce liquidity.

Because only when money starts flowing again will risk markets truly enter the next phase.
#美联储 #降息 # BTC