The biggest signal from the Federal Reserve this time isn't actually "holding interest rates steady." It's that internal divisions have already become quite apparent.

The 8-4 voting result, to put it simply, means some people already feel that high interest rates are suffocating the economy, but others are still worried about inflation making a comeback.
Powell's current stance is also very realistic: not cutting rates, as economic pressure is mounting; cutting too early, and risking the past two years of rate hikes being in vain.
So the market is gradually starting to understand that in the second half of the year, it's not about "whether to cut rates," but rather how long the Fed can hold on.
Many still fantasize that as soon as rates are cut, US stocks and BTC will immediately soar. But the reality might not be that simple. Because historically, the first rate cut often signals that the economy is already starting to show problems.
Right now, the US economy on the surface still looks okay, but internally it's starting to weaken. Consumer spending isn't as strong as before, corporate financing is becoming more difficult, fiscal interest pressures are increasing, and commercial real estate issues are also weighing on the market.
So the current market situation is quite bleak; everyone still talks about a bull market, but capital is becoming more cautious. The real main theme is still liquidity. Assets like AI, tech giants, and BTC are still strong, fundamentally because the market is preemptively pricing in future easing expectations, not because the economy is truly healthy.
Therefore, I personally think there's still a chance of rate cuts in the second half of the year, but more like "taking a breather," not restarting an era of unlimited liquidity.
Actually, what's truly important isn't the rate cut itself, but when the Fed is willing to reintroduce liquidity.
Because only when money starts flowing again can risk markets truly enter the next phase.
#美联储 # Rate cut #BTC