#美联储利率不变但内部分歧加剧

The Federal Reserve should theoretically cut interest rates twice, but in practice it depends on oil prices and coordination with Trump.

On April 30, a CICC research report said that, from a fundamental theoretical perspective, the Federal Reserve should and needs to cut rates by about two times. This is also one of the reasons we are more optimistic than the market about rate cuts. As long as oil prices do not continue to stay above $100 until the end of the year, and inflation falls due to a high base effect, there will be room for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. However, in actual implementation, it requires coordination between oil prices and Trump. Oil prices staying high due to the stalemate in the Iran situation, and the Federal Reserve becoming divided because Powell is hesitant to move forward out of concern that this matter could trigger investigations and not end, are not issues that Wosher can solve independently after taking over in June. The key is all with Trump—if a quick compromise is reached and the investigation into Powell is thoroughly ended, the outlook for rate cuts will gradually open up.