Bitunix Analyst: The market focus is not on "no interest rate cuts," but rather that the Federal Reserve is already beginning to lose its internal consensus on direction

BlockBeats News, April 30 — It was not surprising that the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time, but what truly caused the market to start repricing was the rare split in the FOMC, with an 8-4 vote. One member advocated for an immediate rate cut, while three opposed any continued easing, marking the most dissenting votes since 1992.

This indicates that the Fed’s biggest current issue is no longer “when to cut rates,” but rather a crack in the internal understanding of the nature of inflation.

In recent years, the Fed has consistently viewed energy and supply chain shocks as short-term events, leading the market to believe that inflation would eventually return to 2% given enough time. But now, with the Middle East conflict entering a prolonged phase, oil prices remaining high, and core inflation facing renewed upward pressure, more officials are beginning to doubt: if supply shocks keep recurring, are they no longer “one-time inflation” events?

This is also why, although the statement still retains a dovish tone, three officials have directly opposed it. The market’s real concern is whether the Fed will be forced to accept “higher interest rates for longer,” or even revisit rate hikes in the future.

More importantly, Powell’s official announcement that he will remain on the board after stepping down as Chair is seen as a public confrontation with the Trump administration. This is not just personnel change; it’s a direct conflict over the independence of the Federal Reserve and its future policy dominance. Especially with Kevin Warsh about to take over, the market is actually trading another scenario — whether the next Fed will gradually abandon the “dovish central bank model” relying on forward guidance and market communication that has been in place for over a decade.

For the market, the most critical signal from this meeting is not that interest rates stayed the same, but that the Fed has begun to admit that energy prices and geopolitical tensions may be making “inflation returning to 2%” more difficult than previously imagined.

This is also why, after the meeting, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, rate cut expectations have not significantly expanded, and although tech stocks remain strong in the short term and Bitcoin stays volatile, they have yet to break free from a high-volatility structure. The market is beginning to realize that the biggest risk ahead may not be a recession, but rather a pricing scenario where “inflation cannot be brought down, while growth also starts to slow.”