I. Current Price and Overview (Morning of 4/30)

• BTC current price: approximately 76,100–76,300 USDT, slight fluctuation over 24 hours (-0.5%~-2%)

• Range characteristics: Narrow fluctuation between 75,500–77,000, decreasing volume and observing, waiting for the Fed decision and Middle East situation to catalyze direction

II. Key Support/Resistance

🔴 Resistance (from top to bottom)

1. 77,150: Short-term strong resistance, if stabilized watch for 77,500→79,500

2. 78,100–78,500: Near April high-pressure zone

🟢 Support (from bottom to top)

1. 75,500–75,000: Strong support (20/100 moving averages + dense chips)

2. 74,000: Valid breakdown target

3. 73,000: Key level for daily upward trend, losing it indicates trend weakening

III. Technical Analysis Summary

• Daily chart: Slightly bullish with oscillation, moving averages in a bullish arrangement; but volume is insufficient, rebound is weak

• 4-hour chart: Bollinger Bands narrowing, middle band resistance (~76,800), short-term weak; MACD oscillating near zero line, unclear direction

• Capital flow: ETF continues net inflow, exchange inventory low, medium to long-term bullish; short-term suppressed by macro sentiment

IV. Today's Trading Suggestions (Short-term, with stop-loss)

1) Slightly bullish oscillation strategy (priority)

• Long positions: accumulate in batches at 75,000–75,500

◦ Stop-loss: 74,500 (exit if effectively breaks below 75,000)

◦ Targets: 77,000→77,500, break to watch 79,000

2) Rebound shorting (to prevent break below)

• Short positions: pressure at 76,800–77,150

◦ Stop-loss: 77,600

◦ Targets: 75,500→74,500, break to watch 73,500

3) Follow-up orders after key breakout

• Break above 77,150 and stabilize: lightly chase long positions on pullback to 76,800–77,000, stop-loss at 76,300, targets 78,500→79,500

• Break below 75,000 with volume: lightly chase short positions on rebound to 75,300–75,500, stop-loss at 76,000, targets 74,000→73,000

V. Positioning and Risk Control (Most Important)

• Position size: short-term positions ≤30% of holdings, avoid heavy positions in oscillating markets

• Leverage: mainly spot/low leverage (≤5x), high leverage (≥20x) easily leads to liquidation

• Timing: Volatility will increase around tonight’s Fed decision, try to reduce holdings or lock positions