4.30 Bole Morning Analysis

The gold market showed overall weak oscillation and recovery in the early session, influenced overnight by the hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve meeting, causing the US dollar and Treasury yields to strengthen simultaneously. Gold prices came under pressure and declined, forming three consecutive daily negative candles, with a double top pattern established at high levels, indicating a short-term bearish trend dominance.

From a technical perspective, prices slightly rebounded and recovered in the early session, with the 4600 level acting as a strong resistance and a dividing line for the bears. Without breaking above it, the trend remains weak and downward. The key support below is at the 4500 round number, which is also the last defense for the bulls. Holding this level would keep the price in a range-bound oscillation; breaking below would further open the downside space. Currently, the moving averages are arranged in a bearish pattern, and the green bars on the indicators continue to expand. The rebound is purely a technical correction and not a reversal signal.

The core bearish fundamentals continue to ferment: the Federal Reserve signals that high interest rates will be maintained longer, significantly cooling expectations of rate cuts this year, directly suppressing the upward space for gold. Although geopolitical tensions and central banks’ ongoing gold purchases provide medium- to long-term support, short-term bearish factors dominate, making it difficult to change the weak trend.

Early session trading strategy: mainly follow the trend to short at high points, do not chase longs on rebounds that face resistance, and rely on the 4590-4600 pressure zone to gradually establish short positions. Look for support at 4520-4500. If the first dip to around 4500 is not broken, consider short-term rebounds with strict stop-loss management. As market volatility increases before the holiday, control position sizes, avoid heavy positions, and beware of sudden gap risks from external factors during the holiday.