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Early in the morning, Powell specifically pointed out that the impact of energy shocks on consumption has a lag of 3 to 4 months, this move is particularly ruthless~
This means that the current surge in oil prices will only show its true damaging effects in the data by summer~
Why 3-4 months?
Because energy costs need to be transmitted from refineries to logistics, then from logistics to shelves, and finally become the heartbreaking number on your bill. When consumer spending begins to shrink due to high oil prices, that "recession" will come true~
Additionally, it's important to note that when the Federal Reserve starts talking about the "lagged effects," it indicates they are already looking for excuses for the upcoming economic slowdown...
In three months, look back~
#鲍威尔 #Energy Inflation #宏观预警 #US Stocks #美联储 #Trading Psychology