Institution: The Federal Reserve should theoretically cut interest rates twice, but in practice, it depends on oil prices and Trump's cooperation.

Golden Finance reports that on April 30, a research report from CICC said that, from the standpoint of fundamentals and theory, the Federal Reserve should and still needs to cut interest rates about 2 times—this is also one of the reasons we are more optimistic about rate cuts than the market. As long as oil prices do not remain above $100 through the end of the year, and the high-base effect drives inflation to fall back, there will be room for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. But in practice, it requires coordination between oil prices and Trump. The persistently high oil prices stemming from the stalemate in the Iran situation, and the split within the Federal Reserve caused by Powell worrying about, yet insisting on, an investigation into this, are not problems that Wach can solve on its own after taking over in June. The key lies with Trump: if a rapid compromise is reached and the investigation into Powell is completely brought to an end, then the outlook for rate cuts will gradually open up. (Jin10)