Comprehensive Analysis and Short-term Strategy

$BTC ‌#加密市场小幅下跌
Trend Qualitative: The main trend remains upward (Dow Theory), but in the short term, it is at the end of Wave 5 / the early stage of ABC correction (Wave Theory), facing technical pullback pressure.

Key Price Levels:

• Resistance above: $78,500 (upper boundary of the Zhongshu in Chan Theory / dense area of bearish order blocks), $79,500 (previous high / liquidity acquisition point)

• Support below: $75,800 (EMA21 / hammer candlestick position), $75,200 (POC dense chip area), $74,500 (Wave 4 low / strong support)

Indicator Status: MACD has formed a death cross at high levels, with the histogram turning green; RSI has fallen from the overbought zone (>80) to around 55, not yet oversold, leaving room for adjustment.

Short-term Strategy Recommendations:

• Aggressive traders: Can attempt short positions lightly when encountering resistance at $77,500-$78,000, with a stop-loss above $79,600, targeting $75,800 and the POC level at $75,200

• Conservative traders: Recommended to wait and see, and wait for the price to retrace to the value zone lower boundary at $75,000-$75,500. After confirmation signals such as hammer candlesticks or bullish engulfing appear, consider entering long positions

• Unexpected situations: If the price breaks through $79,500 with volume and stabilizes, then Wave 5 extension continues, and bears should exit with stop-losses