Recently, I saw a bunch of people watching whale addresses and copying trades. To be honest, I'm now more worried about catching hedge trades. Large holders transferring coins into exchanges don't necessarily mean they're about to dump; it could also be just to top up margin on the futures side. Sudden on-chain position increases might be spot buying, while opening shorts on the other side to lock in risk. From the outside, it looks like "building a position," but in reality, they're just locking volatility in a cage.

These days, the calendar for staking unlocks and token unlocks keeps being discussed as potential selling pressure. I get nervous too, but I prefer to focus on a few details first: Is he placing orders gradually in batches, or is he making a big all-in move? Is the fund flow going into exchange hot wallets or just moving to new custodians? And does he also increase positions on derivatives (if you can't see it, just assume you don't know—don't be overconfident). Anyway, I’d rather earn a little less than be led by "whale movements" and run with emotional reactions.

What I’ve learned isn’t a technique, but rather to first admit I don’t see everything clearly, then decide whether to act.