From Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationship, Order Flow, and Price Action Analysis of BTC Short-term Trends

$BTC #比特币现货交易量新低 ‌
1. Dow Theory

Daily level: From the low of 65,725 on March 30 to the high of 79,468 on April 22, Bitcoin is in a clear primary upward trend, with successive higher lows and highs during this period. A secondary correction occurred from April 17 to April 19 (78,320 → 73,802), then was recovered with a volume-driven bullish candle, confirming a bullish dominance pattern.

Current status: After reaching a high of 79,468 on April 22, the price entered a new round of minor correction. On the hourly level, highs and lows are moving down synchronously (79,492 → 77,493 → 78,277 → 74,938), forming a typical downward structure. The core observation of Dow Theory is whether the previous low of 74,938 can hold. If this level is effectively broken, the hourly downtrend will continue, possibly threatening the validity of the daily primary uptrend; conversely, if a double bottom or higher low forms here, the minor correction may end.

2. Chan Theory

From the Chan perspective, a clear downward stroke has formed since 79,492.
Pattern and Strokes: Around 01:00 on April 27, a top pattern formed near 79,330, then a downward stroke began. Key bottom patterns appeared at 16:00 on April 27 (76,537) and 07:00 on April 28 (76,442), but rebound strength was weak, failing to form an effective upward stroke. After the last top pattern at 10:00 on April 29 (77,899), the price accelerated downward to 18:00 on April 29 (74,938), where a bottom pattern emerged.

Central Zone: During the decline, multiple overlapping zones formed. The most important central zone is between 76,442 and 77,899, representing the last wave of rebound and decline with dense trading activity. Currently, the price has moved out of this zone downward, indicating a departure segment. According to Chan logic, after leaving a zone, one must observe for divergence—i.e., the price makes new lows but MACD/ momentum does not— to confirm a buying opportunity. Although 74,938 has formed a bottom pattern, it has not yet been confirmed by the right-side candlestick, so caution is still advised.

3. Wave Theory

Viewing the decline from 79,492 to 74,938 as a complete correction wave, it can be divided into a standard ABC three-wave structure:

Wave A: 79,492 → 77,493, down about 2,000 points

Wave B: 77,493 → 78,277, rebound about 784 points (weak B wave, not surpassing Wave A start, consistent with correction)

Wave C: 78,277 → 74,938, down about 3,339 points
Wave C length is approximately 1.67 times Wave A, close to the Fibonacci golden extension of 1.618, indicating Wave C has fully extended and is in the terminal zone. From Fibonacci retracement, current price has broken below the 0.786 retracement level (75,913), approaching the 1.0 retracement (74,938). If the ABC correction ends here, a new impulsive wave upward should follow; if Wave C continues to extend, larger correction risks are present.

4. Volume-Price Behavior

Volume is the most honest signal in this decline.
At 15:00 on April 27, a large-volume long bearish candle appeared, with volume far exceeding the 12-period average, a typical trend confirmation volume—indicating active selling pressure, ending Wave B rebound and initiating Wave C decline. At 18:00 on April 29, volume increased again near 74,938, but the candlestick had a long lower shadow, with high volume but quick price recovery, showing a climax of selling (Selling Climax), hinting at fund absorption at low levels.

However, subsequent rebounds saw significantly reduced volume. From 21:00 on April 29 to 00:00 on April 30, several bullish candles had volume less than half the average, indicating weak buying follow-through. The VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) is at 77,392, while current prices are well below VWAP, suggesting most recent holders are at a loss, with heavy trapped positions above. For a short-term reversal, a volume-driven bullish breakout above 77,000 is necessary; otherwise, the rebound will be limited.

5. Order Flow

Order flow indicator (Delta) shows that since April 27, the cumulative Delta has remained negative, with sellers dominating. At 15:00 on April 27, an extreme negative Delta occurred, meaning a large amount of market sell orders absorbed buy orders, a direct sign of institutional or large trader short-term reduction or shorting. Although at 18:00 on April 29, the price made a new low, Delta did not confirm a new low, showing a divergence—lower prices but not stronger selling pressure—implying the bearish force at lows is weakening, and passive buy orders are starting to absorb chips. In the last 6 hours, Delta bars have shrunk, negative values decreased, indicating selling exhaustion. However, the overall Delta remains deeply negative, so the environment has not yet turned bullish; a few positive Delta candles are needed to confirm buyers regaining control.

6. Price Action

Recent 24-hour price behavior shows typical downward channel features.
At 10:00 on April 29, a Pin Bar (long upper shadow) appeared, with resistance at 77,899, confirming strong selling pressure above, a good short entry point. At 18:00 on April 29, a Hammer formed at 74,938, with a long lower shadow indicating strong buying interest at that level, followed by a Bullish Engulfing at 19:00, signaling a short-term rebound.

However, after reaching around 76,000, resistance reappeared, and current prices are consolidating between 75,600 and 76,000. Bollinger Bands show volatility contracting (BB Width decreasing), suggesting a potential breakout window. RSI(14) is near 25–30, in oversold territory, indicating a technical rebound is needed, but in a downtrend, oversold conditions can persist.

Short-term comprehensive view:
Key levels:

Strong support: 74,938 (previous low + Wave C terminal + climax level)
First resistance: 76,678 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement)
Second resistance: 77,215 (0.5 retracement + volume cluster)
Strong resistance: 77,899 (previous high + Chan central zone upper boundary)

Scenario analysis:

Bullish bias: If 74,938 holds, forming a double bottom or higher low, with Delta turning positive, and volume breakout above 76,600, then a rebound toward 77,200–77,900 is possible. This indicates the end of ABC correction and the start of a new impulsive upward wave.

Bearish bias: If 74,938 is effectively broken (closing below 74,500 with volume), Wave C will extend, with targets around 73,000–74,000, and the primary daily uptrend will face severe tests.
Current judgment: The short-term is in oversold consolidation, with weakening downward momentum but no strong buy-in yet. The range between 75,600 and 76,000 will determine the next move. Until a clear volume-driven bullish breakout above 76,600 occurs, cautious observation or light long positions are recommended (strict stop-loss below 74,800).