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#Polymarket每日热点
Today’s markets are reacting to the end of the "Powell Era" at the Fed and a significant surge in energy-driven commodity trading.
Here is your snapshot of the high-volume events moving the needle today.
Crypto & Macro Economy
The "Warsh Pivot" is the talk of the town as the Fed transition begins. Bitcoin is seeing massive liquidations as it pulls back from its April highs.
Bitcoin Price: April Bracket $75k – $80k 68% $45M+
Fed Rate Decision (June) No Change (Hawkish) 74% $12M
US x Iran Peace Deal (2026) No 85% $3.2M
Bitcoin entered the April FOMC meeting on a 21% rally. With Powell officially stepping down, the market is pricing in a "uncertainty premium" for June under the expected leadership of Kevin Warsh.
SpaceX filing for a confidential IPO earlier this month, it has become the gravity well of the "IPO 2026" category.
SpaceX IPO Valuation: Markets are leaning toward a $1.75 Trillion+ valuation (89% probability).
Best AI Model (April): Anthropic is currently neck-and-neck with OpenAI for the "top-performing model" contract, resolved by 3rd-party benchmarks.
WTI Crude Oil: Trading has exploded due to the Strait of Hormuz supply concerns. The market for Oil hitting $115 by June is currently sitting at 52%.