When funding rates reach those extreme levels, my first reaction isn't "Opportunity is here," but rather "It's too crowded."


It's not impossible to take the other side of the trade, but what I care more about is that signal: everyone is starting to use leverage to express the same direction, and they think it's natural.
At this point, I usually have two options: either go in with a small position to take the opposite side, and if I'm wrong, just pay the tuition; or simply stay away, wait for the volatility to wash out the emotions before making a move.
Recently, we've been discussing expectations of rate cuts, the US dollar index moving up and down together with risk assets—basically, macro narratives are starting to become a single rope, and the more people pull, the easier it is to break.
Anyway, I don't like to fight desperately in extreme rate environments; surviving is more important than winning a single trade.
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