🏠 U.S. mortgage rates rose close to a 4-week high, showing how Middle East tensions are starting to flow into the housing market through oil prices and Treasury yields.

📌 The average 30-year fixed rate climbed 7 basis points to 6.45%, the highest level since April 3. The move began on Tuesday and accelerated on Wednesday as markets adjusted after hopes for easing Iran tensions faded.
🔎 The key point is that mortgage rates do not move directly with the Fed, but are more sensitive to the 10-year Treasury yield. As oil prices rise on blockade risks and inflation concerns return, bond yields move higher and quickly push borrowing costs up.
💡 Homebuying demand has not disappeared, with purchase applications still rising from the previous week and standing above last year’s level. However, higher rates will continue to erode affordability, especially for first-time buyers.
⚠️ In the short term, the 6.5% area is becoming an important level to watch again. If oil prices and yields stay elevated, the U.S. spring housing season could remain constrained even as housing supply improves.
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