Recently, the curve of stablecoin supply has been used as solid evidence that "funds are about to enter the market," to be honest, the correlation is quite tempting, but don't rush to see it as causation. ETF inflows and outflows, OTC currency exchanges, moving assets in and out of exchanges—it's really hard to tell at a glance how much of it is just "moving positions." I personally prefer comparing on-chain minting/redeeming with net exchange inflows; only when they match do I have some confidence, otherwise I treat it as noise.

These days, I've also been looking at discussions around rate cut expectations and the dollar index. Sometimes, the simultaneous rise and fall of risk assets seem more like emotions pulling in different directions, and it doesn't necessarily mean "money is truly cheaper." What I fear most isn't losses, but mistaking a beautiful chart for a conclusion and then amplifying it in the wrong causal reasoning. Anyway, I still treat it as small experiments, slowly verifying—there's no rush.