FOMC Meeting and Powell Speech Summary

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📜 Core Takeaways: Hawkish hold, wider internal rifts

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, in line with expectations. However, the internal vote was 8 to 4, with disagreement widening significantly—some called for rate cuts, while others opposed the statement’s easing-leaning tone. In his final press conference before stepping down, Powell reiterated that “inflation remains too high,” and refused to make a commitment/guarantee regarding a rate-cut timeline. In substance, this is suppressing financial conditions from easing too quickly through hawkish wording.

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📈 Market Reaction: Rises then falls back, bearish digestion

After the decision, Bitcoin briefly surged to around $78,000, but then quickly pulled back to about $75,100 following Powell’s hawkish remarks, with a daily decline of about 1.4%. The transmission logic remains the same: rate expectations → yields and the US dollar → ETF capital flows → BTC price.

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⚖️ Follow-on Effects: Structural pressure continues; watch two major variables

1. Ongoing postponement of rate-cut expectations → triple pressure on Bitcoin

· High opportunity cost (real US Treasury yields around 1.2%-1.5%)
· Weak leverage appetite (perpetual contract funding rates have fallen to 2%-3%)
· Diversion of stablecoin liquidity

2. Cautious signals from institutional capital
Before the decision, ETFs had recorded about $89.68 million in outflows. If the outflow trend continues, it will intensify price corrections.

3. “Wosh Era” uncertainty premium
Powell will step down on May 15. His successor, Wosh, advocates reshaping the policy framework, and his stance toward crypto is complex (publicly criticizing some projects, but personally holding Bitcoin-related assets). The power transition period will create an additional source of uncertainty-driven volatility.

4. Key technical levels
Resistance is $78,000-$79,500. Support is around $72,100. Falling below $72,900 could trigger liquidations of more than $1 billion.

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🔮 Summary: Bearish macro constraints; cautiously wait for signals

The short-term shock from the decision has been digested, but delayed rate-cut expectations + funding rates staying at low levels + signs of institutional outflows together form a structural headwind for Bitcoin. The biggest mid-term variable is whether policy direction in the Wosh era can bring a turnaround. It is recommended to closely monitor subsequent ETF capital flows and US GDP data.

⚠️ The above is only a macro interpretation and does not constitute investment advice. The market is highly volatile—please make decisions carefully.