My understanding of "long-term" is quite inconsistent: from a macro perspective, I consider it on a quarterly basis, after all, the transmission of interest rate hikes or cuts to market sentiment isn't that quick; but on-chain, it's even shorter, maybe two or three weeks, enough for me to review the actions of a few key addresses, authorization traces, and contract call chains, and then I can roughly tell whether this wave of positions should be held firmly or not.

Interest rates, simply put, are about raising or lowering the cost of "willingness to take risks." When the cost is high, the changes I observe usually aren't immediate sell-offs, but rather the chain becoming quiet: large transfers become more hesitant, cross-chain transactions decrease, the frequency of contract interactions drops, and positions naturally shift from "holding and waiting for stories" to "keeping some cash and waiting for evidence." Conversely, when risk appetite returns, everyone starts to dare to authorize and push into new pools, but I first check whether it's the same group of addresses repeatedly pushing and pulling, so as not to be carried away by emotions.

Recently, the vibe of economic collapse in chain games has been quite obvious too; as inflation rises and studios retreat, the token prices spiral downward on their own... When macro tightening happens, the first to break are these models that require continuous "adding to sentiment." That's enough for now; I don't want to make definitive judgments, I'll keep watching for evidence.