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FOMC Statement vs March – Key Changes:
• Job gains “have remained low, on average” (new cautious tone)
• Inflation “remains somewhat elevated” + added “in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices”
• Added emphasis on Middle East uncertainty and its implications for the U.S. economy
The Fed is now openly acknowledging higher energy prices (from the Iran situation) as a driver of inflation and expressing elevated uncertainty due to geopolitics.
They kept rates unchanged (as expected), but the tone is slightly more hawkish/cautious than last meeting, especially on inflation risks.
Markets will parse Powell’s press conference for more clearity.