Just noticed coffee futures settling mixed on Friday - arabica up slightly while robusta dropped. Prices are consolidating after taking some hits over the past few weeks, though the dollar weakness gave them a little boost. The real story here is the supply side getting heavier. Brazil's forecasting agency just upped their 2026 production outlook to a record 66.2 million bags, which is up 17% year-over-year. That's a lot more coffee coming. Vietnam's also ramping up exports - they hit 198k MT in January alone, up nearly 40% from last year. Colombia's production is actually down significantly though, which is one of the few bright spots for prices. What's interesting from a Barchart analysis perspective is that while ICE inventories recovered recently after hitting multi-month lows, the global supply picture is still expanding. USDA's projecting world production will hit a record 178.8 million bags this year. So arabica coffee is facing real headwinds from this bumper crop outlook, even with some smaller supplies from Colombia. The consolidation we're seeing might just be a pause before prices test lower again as more Brazilian coffee hits the market.

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