Today I again saw those "coincidental transfers" on the chain: A just sent to B, B immediately transferred to C, C then went to a certain contract, and the group chat immediately started conspiracy theories... I was excited at first, but then I forced myself to analyze the path: Is it the same fund being consolidated? Is it cross-chain or a hot wallet transfer on an exchange? Is a liquidation bot topping up margin? Honestly, many "coincidences" are just everyone using the same pipeline.

What's more awkward is that when the fee rate is extreme, the community argues whether to reverse the transaction or continue to inflate the bubble. My position, like a cat, is easily tempted to chase those "on-chain signals," only to find that signals are often just echoes of noise. Now I first check if there’s a fixed rhythm before and after the transfer, whether the same addresses appear repeatedly, and only act if I find a logical reason. If not, I just pass by.

What I’ve learned isn’t techniques, but… don’t treat what you want to see as if the chain is talking.