FOMC Meeting Preview: Market Focuses on Milan Voting and Powell's "Hawkish Risks"

BlockBeats News, April 30—The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, but the wording of the statement and the policy signals released during Powell’s press conference remain closely watched. As for the policy statement, the market expects the FOMC to most likely vote 11:1 to keep rates unchanged. Milan may continue to cast the only vote against a rate cut, but it is also not ruled out that it will abandon its rate-cut stance and form a consensus resolution.

In addition, the Federal Reserve may adjust its description of the labor market to reflect that hiring activity is still somewhat weak while overall employment conditions are stabilizing; at the same time, it may also re-evaluate the wording related to the situation in the Middle East, and may delete the phrase “further (additional) adjustments to interest rates,” to preserve greater flexibility for the future policy direction.

Powell’s press conference is also considered to carry some “hawkish risk.” Institutions expect him to continue emphasizing inflation resilience, uncertainty, and the importance of maintaining patience, and he may also hint that rising energy prices could delay the pace of rate cuts.

The market is also watching whether Powell responds to “whether he has discussed rate hikes,” and whether he plans to continue serving as a Federal Reserve governor until January 2028. If Powell clearly gives up his subsequent governor term, the market may further strengthen expectations that Donald Trump’s influence on Federal Reserve policy will expand in the future.