Just noticed coffee prices are climbing again. May arabica hit a 3-week high on Friday, up 1.56%, and robusta pushed to a 2.5-week high too. The supply story is getting tighter - Iran's situation has basically frozen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which is spiking logistics costs for everyone importing coffee.

Brazil's exports actually dropped 17.4% year-over-year in February, which caught some attention. Meanwhile, Colombia's production is down sharply, falling 34% in January. That said, Brazil's getting decent rainfall in their main growing regions, so the long-term outlook there is improving.

The real pressure though? Vietnam's crushing it on robusta exports - up 14% in early 2026, and their annual exports jumped 17.5%. Plus, forecasts are pointing to record global coffee production hitting 180 million bags next season. ICE coffee inventories have been recovering too, which is usually bearish. So yeah, we've got this weird mix - short-term supply tightness pushing prices up, but longer-term oversupply concerns keeping a lid on how high the ice coffee market price can really go. Watching how these geopolitical disruptions play out.