BAE's decision to leave OPEC and OPEC+ as of May 1, 2026, marks a historic turning point in the global energy markets.

With Trump's obsession with low oil prices and BAE's moves, we see the following picture:
First, what are OPEC and BAE?
OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. It is a cartel where the world's largest oil producers come together to control oil prices and production levels. Its goal is to restrict supply in the market and keep prices high to protect member countries' revenues.
BAE = United Arab Emirates. It was the third-largest producer within OPEC. In recent years, it made massive investments to increase its oil production capacity and now wants to break free from the production restrictions imposed by OPEC to realize the returns on these investments.
BAE says:
I have invested billions of dollars for years to increase my oil production capacity. But as long as I remain in OPEC, due to the group's decisions, I cannot fully utilize this capacity and have to sell less oil. I no longer accept these restrictions. Starting from May 1, I will leave the group and make my own decisions. I will continue to sell oil to the world, but I will decide how much to sell, not someone else.
Trump has viewed OPEC as a cartel artificially constricting the market and inflating prices since his first term. For him, low oil prices are the strongest tool to both reduce inflation in the US economy and ease consumer burdens.
BAE's departure from OPEC and its increase in production directly align with Trump's long-standing desire for the cartel to disintegrate and for supply to be freed.
The Strait of Hormuz is the heart of global oil traffic but also the biggest security risk. BAE has two strategic advantages in this process:
Pipelines:
BAE is one of the few countries that can transport part of its oil directly to the Gulf of Oman without needing the Strait of Hormuz.
Capacity Increase: By increasing its production, BAE sends a message that even if the Strait is closed, it can still supply oil. This move could neutralize energy blackmail via Hormuz.
BAE's move is not just an economic decision but also a strategic maneuver that reduces the geopolitical weight of the Strait of Hormuz and serves the Western world's vision of abundant, cheap oil—especially favored by the Trump administration.
Through this, BAE is distancing itself from regional crises and positioning itself as the new safe haven in the global energy market.
When we piece this together, it suggests a preparation for a medium- to long-term green light for the markets. Kevin Warsh's appointment to head the Fed and BAE's move are actually two major macroeconomic gears working in tandem.
Kevin Warsh, known as a hawk in the markets, is being appointed to accelerate rate cuts by Trump.
The biggest obstacle to the Fed's ability to act was inflation that remained high due to energy costs.
BAE's exit from OPEC and its increased production will create a structural downward pressure on oil prices.
Falling oil prices mean a decline in inflation in the US. When inflation drops, the legitimate ground for Kevin Warsh to cut interest rates is naturally established. In other words, BAE is essentially clearing the way for the Fed to lower rates.
Cryptocurrencies love liquidity.
Low energy costs curb inflation.
Kevin Warsh cuts rates and floods the market with cheap dollars.
For the current scenario, we can say that the market conditions Trump desires are being built through BAE.
Let’s get through short-term fluctuations; unless very different things happen on the world agenda, the outlook ahead is green.