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So Walmart's hitting all-time highs and everyone's asking if it's still worth buying. Let me break down what I'm seeing here because the numbers tell an interesting story.
Right now WMT is trading at roughly 40x trailing earnings. That's pretty steep compared to where it usually sits over a 10-year period. The thing is, when a mature retailer like Walmart commands that kind of multiple, investors are typically expecting some serious growth acceleration. But that's not what we're getting. The company is guiding for somewhere between 3.75% and 4.75% net sales growth this fiscal year. Single-digit growth. That's solid for a legacy retailer, but it doesn't really justify the premium valuation we're seeing.
Add in the headwinds they're facing and it gets messier. Tariffs are eating into margins, and there's real uncertainty about whether Walmart can absorb those costs or if they'll have to pass them along to consumers. If prices spike, you could see demand weaken, which means earnings might disappoint in the quarters ahead.
Then there's Amazon. They've been expanding same-day grocery delivery across over 1,000 U.S. cities now, and they're planning to double that footprint. For years, Walmart didn't really sweat Amazon's grocery push, but this feels different. If Amazon gets real traction in grocery delivery, that's a direct shot at one of Walmart's core revenue engines. Without strong earnings growth to support it, Walmart's already rich valuation starts looking really expensive.
Don't get me wrong - Walmart's a fortress. Nearly $700 billion in sales over the past year. It's not going anywhere. The business is resilient and generates solid fundamentals. As a long-term holding, there's definitely a case for it.
But here's the thing about valuation: it matters. When you're paying close to 40x earnings during uncertain economic times and facing intensifying competition, you're leaving yourself exposed. You're not getting much margin of safety, and your upside becomes capped. That's not ideal when you're looking for the best stocks to buy now for long term growth.
Given where we are right now, I think there are better opportunities out there. Cheaper growth stocks with more runway might give you a better risk-reward setup than catching Walmart at these levels. Worth considering before you jump in.