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Just noticed something worth paying attention to in the market right now. A lot of people are still following Warren Buffett's portfolio moves, and honestly, there's some solid thinking behind what Berkshire Hathaway is holding these days.
So here's the situation: household debt in the U.S. is hitting record levels at $18.8 trillion, and loan delinquencies are climbing to near-decade highs around 4.8%. That's the kind of backdrop that would normally hammer financial stocks. But Warren Buffett's second-biggest position, American Express, might actually be better positioned than you'd think. The key difference is that Amex caters to wealthier customers, and those folks are still spending. Their luxury spending actually grew 15% year-over-year in Q4, which is nearly double the overall 8% growth in billed business. The stock pulled back almost 20% from its December peak, which could be your entry point before it bounces back.
Then there's Constellation Brands, the Corona and Modelo brewer. Warren Buffett jumped into this one late last year, but it hasn't exactly ripped since then. Yeah, alcohol consumption in the U.S. hit a multidecade low at 54%, which sounds brutal. But here's what people are missing: this industry is cyclical as hell. When people get more confident about their finances again, demand will come roaring back. Plus, Constellation just cleaned house by dumping some lower-tier wine brands that were dragging things down. Fresh leadership under incoming CEO Nicholas Fink could also spark a turnaround.
Now, here's the flip side. Not every Warren Buffett holding is a winner. DaVita, the kidney dialysis company, is a cautionary tale. Back when Berkshire first bought in around 2011, things were humming. But the healthcare industry has become a grind, with reimbursement pressures squeezing margins everywhere. DaVita's showing only 5% revenue growth year-over-year but net income is down 17%. That's the kind of divergence that signals trouble ahead. Interestingly, Berkshire itself started backing away from this position early last year, which tells you something about how they're viewing the whole healthcare sector right now.
The broader takeaway? Warren Buffett's fingerprints are still all over what Berkshire owns, even with the leadership transition. Some bets are aging well, others less so. But if you're looking to mirror some of those moves, American Express and Constellation Brands look more interesting than the healthcare plays right now.