Been noticing something interesting about Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio lately. Even though Warren Buffett stepped back from the CEO chair, his stock picks are still basically running the show over there. The guy's fingerprints are all over their current holdings, and honestly, some of them look pretty compelling right now.

Let me break down what caught my attention. First up is American Express - it's actually Berkshire's second-largest position at over $47 billion. The stock got hammered about 20% from its December peak, mostly because everyone's freaking out about consumer spending collapsing. Fair concern on the surface - U.S. household debt is sitting at a record $18.8 trillion, and loan delinquencies hit near-decade highs around 4.8%. That's the kind of thing that should worry any lender, right?

But here's where it gets interesting. Amex isn't your typical lender. They're loaded with affluent cardholders, and these people kept spending through the downturn. Their luxury spending actually grew 15% year-over-year in Q4, almost double the 8% growth in total billed business. So while the market's panicking, the company's core customers are still spending like it's 2021. That 20% pullback might actually be the discount everyone's waiting for.

Then there's Constellation Brands, the Corona and Modelo company. Warren Buffett bought in late last year and it hasn't exactly printed money yet - shares are down since then. Yeah, alcohol consumption in the U.S. hit a multidecade low at 54% according to Gallup. Looks terrible on paper. But the beer business is cyclical, and demand always comes back. People cut back when they're stressed about money and health, but that changes. Meanwhile, the company's been cleaning house - divested some lower-margin wine brands that were just cluttering things up. New CEO Nicholas Fink should bring some fresh thinking too. This one feels like a patience play.

Now, the one I'd actually be cautious about from Buffett's portfolio - DaVita, the kidney dialysis company. Warren Buffett and team bought in back in 2011 when the business was solid. Things have deteriorated significantly since then. Revenue growth is only 5% year-over-year through the first three quarters of fiscal 2025, but net income dropped 17%. That's the healthcare industry's problem in a nutshell - reimbursement pressure, rising costs, no relief in sight. Tellingly, Berkshire started scaling out of this position early last year. Even the new CEO Greg Abel seems to be following that same playbook.

The broader takeaway? Warren Buffett's portfolio still deserves attention, but you've got to think independently about each position. Some of these are genuine opportunities, others are just patience tests that might not pay off.