Thinking about the Strait of Hormuz is quite amusing.

Simplified timeline based on the latest reports:
1. Iran strikes first: After the U.S. and Israel attack Iran in late February 2026, Iran retaliates by blocking/strictly controlling the Strait of Hormuz (threatening 20% of global oil transportation), demanding tolls, allowing only "friendly" ships to pass, or completely restricting passage. This becomes Iran's main bargaining chip.
2. The U.S. demands open passage: Trump repeatedly issues ultimatums, demanding Iran fully open the strait (as a ceasefire condition). Iran refuses, continuing to threaten via the strait.
3. The U.S. counteracts the blockade: After negotiations break down (around April 12), the U.S. implements a naval blockade starting April 13, targeting ships entering and leaving Iranian ports (not completely sealing the entire strait, but seriously hindering Iran-related shipping). Trump says this is "the most effective pressure tactic," even more effective than bombing.
4. Iran responds again: After the U.S. blockade, Iran briefly announces "opening" then quickly backtracks/reasserts control, demanding the U.S. lift the blockade before discussing further opening of the strait. Recently, Iran also proposed a plan through intermediaries: lift the blockade first, end the war (nuclear issues to be discussed later).
Essentially: Iran first uses the strait to block the world (and the U.S.), then the U.S. uses the oil export blockade against Iran; Iran then demands the U.S. loosen first. Both sides are saying "you open/lift first, then I’ll cooperate," but neither is willing to make the first move, so the strait keeps opening and closing repeatedly. $BTC ‌$XBRUSD ‌