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Just been thinking about this whole AI disruption narrative that's been crushing software stocks lately. Everyone's freaking out that ChatGPT and similar tools will make companies like Wix and Adobe obsolete, but the bear market in software right now feels way overblown.
Look at Wix. The stock got hammered down to around $72, but their actual business is still humming along. Revenue growth actually accelerated to 14% last quarter, which is the opposite of what you'd expect if AI was really killing them. They own this no-code website building space and just acquired Base44, a mobile app builder that's already tracking toward $50 million in annual recurring revenue. Wall Street's sitting on a $151 price target while the stock trades at less than half that. That's a massive disconnect.
Then there's Adobe. Down nearly 45% over the past year, trading at $258 while analysts have a $429 target. Sure, the AI disruption story sounds scary on paper - like some startup could just ask an AI to replicate their entire product suite. But here's the thing: Adobe just posted record revenue of $6.2 billion last quarter and they're buying back shares at these discounted prices. They've been growing for a decade straight and their subscription model keeps working because switching costs are real. No one's ripping out Adobe from their workflow just because an AI chatbot exists.
The bear market in software has created this weird disconnect where fundamentally sound businesses are trading at historically cheap valuations. Wix has $570 million in free cash flow on a market cap under $4 billion. That's not a value trap, that's just free money if you believe in the company's durability.
I get why people are nervous about AI. It's a real disruptor in some industries. But the idea that small business owners will suddenly abandon Wix, or that creative teams will stop paying for Adobe because AI exists? That's not how software adoption works. Switching costs, institutional inertia, and trust matter way more than the latest tech headlines.
This bear market is probably the best entry point we've seen in years for quality software names. Just saying.