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Looking back at the companies that had their IPO in 2010, it's pretty interesting how different that market was. We barely saw 100 deals that year compared to the 300-400 we'd normally get in boom times. Market uncertainty was everywhere, so a lot of companies that wanted to go public just got pulled at the last second.
But here's what caught my attention - even with all that chaos, some of the companies that had their IPO in 2010 absolutely crushed it. We're talking 50%, 100%, even 200% gains from their offering price. That's the kind of performance that makes you think the market might be ready to move again.
The thing most people don't realize is that you don't need to jump in on day one. Back in the dot-com days, yeah, hot IPOs would moon immediately. But these days? Almost every single one of these companies that had their IPO in 2010 came out pretty quiet and only started moving weeks or months later. So there's actually time to do your homework before jumping in.
Let me break down some of the wild ones. Motricity (MOTR) looked solid on mobile software demand, but it ran from $7.50 to $17 on pure momentum. Sure, sales were supposed to grow 30% in 2011, but the market was pricing in way more than that. Same story with Molycorp (MCP) - it doubled on China rare earth metal supply fears, but people ignored that rare earth mining exists everywhere else too. Now it's valued at $2.5 billion with no real revenue in sight.
Qlik Technologies (QLIK) also got ahead of itself after doubling. The growth story looked great until you actually looked at the numbers - sales growth had been decelerating for three years before they went public. Trading at 60x forward earnings? That's asking for trouble.
Some plays like HiSoft Technologies (HSFT) and China Lodging (HTHT) only make sense if you're thinking long-term on China's development. China Lodging specifically is expensive at 50x 2011 profits. It'd be way more attractive after a stumble.
But Jinko Solar (JKS) stood out. Even after a 250% gain, it still looked reasonably priced at around 7x forward earnings. Most other solar stocks had already exploded, so Jinko had one of the lowest multiples in the group. That one actually looked like it had room to run.
The rest of these companies that had their IPO in 2010 were probably due for a pullback. Momentum was doing the heavy lifting, and once that unwound, some of these could've made for good short opportunities. The real lesson? Don't chase IPOs on day one. Wait for the dust to settle and actually look at the numbers.