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Just watched the market get hammered pretty hard on Friday. SPX dropped 1.33%, Nasdaq fell 1.51% - the kind of day where you're scrolling through charts and everything's red. Dow hit a 3.5-month low, which tells you the selling pressure was real across the board.
Two things were driving the selloff. First, crude oil went absolutely wild - up over 12% to hit a 2.5-year high because of what's happening in the Middle East. Qatar's energy minister literally said the war could "bring down the economies of the world," and if things escalate, we're looking at $150 oil. That's pushing inflation fears through the roof. Second, employment data came in weak. Payrolls dropped 92k when everyone was expecting +55k, and unemployment ticked up to 4.4%. That's the kind of labor market weakness that makes traders nervous about what the Fed does next.
The tech stocks got crushed - Meta, Tesla, Amazon, Nvidia all down over 2%. Chipmakers took it even harder, with Lam Research down 7% and basically the whole semiconductor space bleeding. Airlines were getting hit too since jet fuel prices are spiking with oil. Even crypto-exposed stocks tanked - Bitcoin dropped, so Riot and Galaxy Digital were down 9%+.
What's wild is the energy situation. The Strait of Hormuz is basically closed because of Iranian threats, which handles like 20% of global oil. Storage tanks are filling up, Qatar's LNG facility got hit, and China just told its refiners to stop exporting fuel. Goldman Sachs is pricing in an $18/barrel risk premium just from potential supply disruptions. That's serious market impact.
Fed officials are trying to sound calm though. Christopher Waller said the Iran situation probably won't cause sustained inflation, and Beth Hammack suggested keeping rates on hold. But honestly, when you've got oil surging, employment weakening, and geopolitical chaos all hitting at once, the market's right to be nervous. T-notes rallied on the weaker jobs data and safe-haven buying, but the 10-year yield is still around 4.13%. Earnings have been the bright spot - 74% of S&P 500 companies beat expectations so far - but that's not enough to hold the market up when macro conditions are deteriorating like this.
Seems like we're in one of those phases where every data point matters and sentiment can shift fast. Definitely keeping an eye on how the Middle East situation evolves and what next month's labor market looks like.