Just caught something interesting watching coffee futures this week. Arabica and robusta both jumped hard on Monday, with robusta hitting a 2-week high. Turns out the shipping situation through the Strait of Hormuz is pushing up costs across the board - insurance, fuel, all of it getting more expensive for importers and roasters.

Here's where it gets messy though. Brazil got some decent rain last week in their main coffee regions, which took some of the upside pressure off arabica. But Vietnam's been flooding the market with robusta exports - up nearly 40% year-over-year in January alone. Meanwhile, ICE inventories are climbing back up after hitting multi-month lows, which usually weighs on prices.

The bigger picture from what I've been reading: Brazil's forecasting a record harvest next year, and global production is expected to hit 180 million bags. That's a lot of coffee coming. Short-term supply concerns are supporting prices right now, but long-term it looks bearish. If you're tracking commodity markets like Barchart does, coffee's definitely one to watch - lots of cross currents moving prices around.