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Shouchuang Futures: Export quotas may be relaxed, and the Urea Futures UR2609 contract surges significantly
Today, the main contract of urea futures UR2609 surged significantly, with the intraday high reaching 2,074 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 3%. The recent sharp rise in urea futures prices has mainly been influenced by rumors that export quotas may be relaxed. However, against the backdrop of tight supply and demand and low inventory levels, the export policy is unlikely to be implemented in the short term. Currently, the official has not loosened export quotas, and the market’s main expectation remains based on speculation. From a fundamental perspective, supply continues to operate at high levels; on the demand side, the northern spring plowing season is nearing its end, with industrial needs being the main support. In terms of trading strategy, recent urea futures movements are heavily influenced by news, and with supply-side policies and high supply constraints limiting upside, those without positions are not advised to chase higher prices. (First Capital Futures)