By 2028, the Nasdaq will reach 80k.

I’ve translated and summarized an article that discusses the perspective that the AI bubble could grow much larger than the market currently thinks.
The core of this article is not simply “AI is good,” but
the argument that when AI narrative + passive investment structure combine, the Nasdaq/Q can rise far beyond common sense.
AI is regarded as a revolutionary technology that automates knowledge work and can explosively increase productivity.
But now, market structure overlaps with this.
Recently, many people prefer to invest automatically in the S&P 500 or Q through pensions, ETFs, and index funds, rather than picking individual stocks.
Since these funds are allocated based on market capitalization weights,
they keep pouring into mega-tech giants like Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon.
The problem is that the actual liquidity of these companies isn’t as large as their market cap.
In other words, if passive funds keep flowing in,
even small inflows can significantly push up the stock prices of big tech, and
as stock prices rise, their market cap share increases, attracting even more capital, creating a feedback loop.
Adding the growth expectations for AI,
the Nasdaq could expand not just as a simple rally but as a massive bubble.
The author calculates an extreme scenario where
Q could reach $1,500 by 2028.
Of course, this isn’t a certain forecast,
but rather a low-probability scenario that could produce very large gains if it materializes.
Conversely, the risks are clear:
if global liquidity shrinks,
or geopolitical risks increase again,
or AI expectations don’t translate into actual results,
then a significant correction could occur, especially around overvalued big tech stocks.
This article discusses the view that “the AI bubble is not over, but could actually expand even more due to the passive investment structure,” and
personally, I don’t think the market is cheap right now, but
since AI is changing the world, and the market is still more focused on fundamentals rather than expectations,
it might be worth expecting even higher gains for now.
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