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Just been digging into the cannabis stock space again, and honestly, the more I look at it, the less convinced I am that Tilray is the move everyone thinks it is. Don't get me wrong—the company tried to pivot from pure marijuana into a brand manager approach, picking up CBD and alcohol plays along the way. Smart in theory. But here's the thing that keeps bothering me: they've diluted shareholders by over 300% in five years just to fund these acquisitions, and they're still not profitable. That's a red flag I can't ignore.
The real issue is that Tilray's been taking impairment charges across basically every segment. That suggests their whole growth playbook might not be working as well as management hoped. It's a high-risk bet that they eventually find a sustainable business model, and frankly, I'm not sure they will.
Now, if you're actually looking at the best cannabis stocks to buy or just high-risk consumer plays in general, I'd honestly rather look at Altria instead. Yeah, I know—tobacco sounds old school. But here's what most people miss: Altria's sitting on a cash cow. Marlboro owns 40.5% of the cigarette market, and overall they control 45.2% of the market. That's dominance.
The catch is obvious—cigarette volumes are declining. That's real. But the company's still sustainably profitable, and they're using that cash to fund a growing dividend (currently yielding 6.1%) while investing in new products that might eventually replace cigarettes. They've taken their lumps—Juul didn't work out, early marijuana bets flopped, billions in write-offs. But they were strong enough to absorb those hits and keep swinging. Recently picked up NJOY, the vape company.
So yeah, Altria's risky too. Core business is declining, no question. But the difference is they're generating actual cash from a real market position while they figure out what's next. With Tilray, you're betting on them finding that next thing while they're still bleeding money.
If you're going to take on high-risk plays, Altria just looks like better odds. You need to watch both closely, but at least with Altria you're getting paid a solid yield while you wait to see if management can pull off the transition. That's a trade-off that makes more sense to me than holding a diluted stake in a company that still can't turn a profit.