Brother Liang: 2 a.m. Federal Reserve Decision + Old Powell’s “Farewell Show,” Market Volatility Warnings and Layout Thoughts

Brothers, tonight (to be precise, early tomorrow at 2 a.m.) is the main event of the month—the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, followed by a speech from Powell at 2:30 a.m.

This is not only the March policy meeting, but it may also be Powell’s “farewell performance” as chairman (his term ends in mid-May). Against the backdrop of tense Middle East conditions and rising oil prices, Old Powell’s comments are something the market is holding its breath to hear.

The key points to watch are these three:

1. Interest rates: 100% unchanged—no suspense there. The focus is on the statement and the speech that follow.

2. Wording of the statement: The main thing is whether they will remove lines like “inflation is temporary,” or imply that future policy may not necessarily be rate cuts, and could instead involve rate hikes (“two-way risks”). If that happens, it’s a hawkish signal—good for the U.S. dollar, bad for gold and U.S. stocks.

3. Old Powell’s speech: This is the real “market engine.” It’s expected that he will emphasize that they still need to look at more data, and he won’t easily give the green light to a fast rate-cut path. But at the end of his term, will he go even more “hawkish” to safeguard credibility, or will he leave a bit of room for the next person to come in? Any dovish hints could trigger a sharp rebound.

Impact on Gold and Strategy:

Gold prices have been relatively weak these days and have already fallen quite a bit. Tonight, there are two main possibilities:

Scenario 1 (hawkish, a bit more likely): The U.S. dollar strengthens, and gold may take another step down. Focus on the support zone at 4550–4530. If it holds, a short-term rebound is possible. If it’s broken decisively by a strong selloff, the next stop could be to test 4500, or even lower.

Scenario 2 (unexpectedly dovish): The U.S. dollar pulls back, and gold could rebound sharply in retaliation, with the first major resistance above at the 4610–4620 area.

My strategy and thoughts (for reference only):

Right now, I’m continuing to stay on the sidelines and observe—I won’t wade into this mess before the decision. After the market digests the first wave of impact, once the direction is clearer, then I’ll act.

If, due to a hawkish shock around midnight/early morning, gold sees a rapid drop (“waterfall”), I will pay close attention to stabilization signals around 4510 and 4480. If we see clear 1-hour or 4-hour chart stabilization candle setups at these key support levels (for example, a needle-like dip/bottoming wick, bullish engulfing, etc.), I may consider setting up a portion of swing long positions—betting on an oversold rebound and a technical repair.

Of course, if Old Powell is extremely hawkish and gold keeps falling without turning back, then I’ll keep watching—absolutely won’t try to buy “in the middle of the mountain.”

In short, tonight’s strategy can be summed up in one word: wait.

Wait for the news to become clear, wait for the market sentiment to vent, and wait for clear technical signals. There are always opportunities, but the principal is only one. Keep your hands steady, manage your positions, and strictly cut losses.

As for my next moves, tomorrow morning I will update my views in the post based on the actual market conditions. Feel free to exchange ideas together, but do remember to pay attention to risk control!

Wishing you smooth trading and a steady passage through this volatile night!