Tonight's Federal Reserve interest rate decision core judgment: 100% maintain interest rates unchanged, hawkish tone, Powell's "last dance," short-term negative risk assets, positive for the dollar, at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on April 30th policy statement, 2:30 a.m. Powell press conference, the Fed will 100% keep the federal funds rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range, marking the third consecutive pause in policy adjustments.

- Market pricing: CME FedWatch shows a 100% probability of holding rates steady, only a 4.5% chance of a rate cut in June, the expectation of rate cuts this year has been reduced from 3 times to at most once (earliest September), JPMorgan even predicts zero rate cuts throughout 2026;

- Essence: Hawkish words without action—interest rates unchanged, but language and tone are fully hawkish, the core is to suppress rate cut expectations and pave the way for the successor. 1. Powell's "last dance," personnel decisions for long-term policy

This is Powell's last FOMC meeting before stepping down (Chair term expires on May 15), with two main points of focus:

- Whether Powell will remain as a Federal Reserve governor: if he stays, policy continuity is stronger; if he fully steps down, new Chair Kevin W. will lead policy, advocating "balance sheet reduction + rate cuts," using "truncated average inflation" to weaken external shocks, with more flexible long-term policy;

- Press conference tone: Powell will deliberately be hawkish, refuse to give market expectations of early rate cuts, emphasize sticky inflation, high interest rates lasting longer, and avoid leaving policy burdens for his successor.