So I keep seeing this everywhere - people freaking out about whether the stock market is heading for a crash. Around 80% of Americans are at least somewhat worried about a recession right now, and honestly, I get it. The metrics do look a bit stretched.

There's this thing called the Shiller CAPE Ratio that's basically screaming overvaluation. It's hit levels we haven't seen since the dot-com bubble popped in the early 2000s. That's the kind of thing that makes people nervous about the stock market tanking.

But here's what I've noticed after watching markets for a while: there's actually one move that works almost every single time, and it's almost boring how simple it is.

The thing is, even if a stock market recession does hit, history is pretty brutal about proving one point over and over. Since 1929, the average bear market has lasted around 286 days - that's just under 9.5 months. Meanwhile, the average bull market? Over 1,000 days. Nearly three years.

I know that sounds like I'm stating the obvious, but the implication is huge. If you can just sit tight and not panic-sell when prices drop, you're statistically way more likely to make money than lose it. The S&P 500 is up nearly 45% since January 2022, which was literally the start of the most recent bear market. Since 2000, it's up almost 400%.

Look, no two downturns are identical. But there's never been a recession or crash that the market hasn't eventually recovered from - given enough time. The question isn't really whether it'll bounce back. The question is whether you'll still be holding when it does.

If you panic and dump your positions after prices have already fallen, you're locking in losses. That's the real risk. The stock market has always rewarded patience, and I don't see why that changes now.

So yeah, volatility could be coming. But if there's one thing you can do to actually protect your portfolio? Stay invested. The longer your money sits in the market, the better your odds of positive returns. That's not a guarantee, but it's about as close as investing gets.