I noticed an interesting point about how the cryptocurrency market typically reacts to macroeconomic shocks. It’s been a few months now, since early February, when US employment data showed a significant weakening, and the AI sector faced overvaluation, that what many feared happened. Bitcoin fell below the psychological level of the 200-day moving average, triggering a cascade of liquidations worth billions of dollars. Back then, everyone was asking one question: how long will this crypto bear market last?

I decided to analyze historical data. It turns out that the crypto bear market usually lasts from 10 to 14 months — significantly shorter than multi-year bull cycles. For comparison, in the traditional S&P 500 market, bear periods average around 9.6 months, but crypto bear markets often end faster, although the declines are usually much deeper — from 75 to 85 percent compared to 35 percent in stocks.

In February, it was clear that the downturn was fueled by three factors. First, institutional investors began mass selling Bitcoin along with tech stocks like Nvidia and Alphabet. Second, cascade liquidations occurred — when BTC dropped below 70 thousand, it caused a withdrawal of positions totaling $3.5 billion within a few hours. Third, the premium on US exchanges turned negative, indicating selling pressure from institutional players.

But here’s the interesting part — history shows that even the most severe crypto bear markets eventually transition into a new bull cycle. The shortest bear market in US history was the 2020 crash due to COVID, which lasted only 33 days. The longest was the dot-com crash from 2000 to 2002, lasting a full 31 months. The current situation resembles a cyclical downturn rather than a structural collapse.

Now, in April, with BTC recovering to $76,800, it’s clear that the market has moved out of the acute phase. The level of $58-60 thousand, which seemed like the final line of defense, held. This suggests that the 2026 crypto bear market will most likely be a classic cyclical downturn rather than a long-term catastrophe.

For those remaining in the market, there are several strategies. Long-term investors can use dollar-cost averaging at support levels. Hedges work with inverse instruments. Those seeking income are shifting capital into DeFi protocols with stable yields. The main thing is not to panic and remember that every previous crypto bear market ended with a new all-time high.

The main risk, of course, is catching a value trap or losing capital on leverage. But looking at the data, the cyclical bear market is simply a redistribution of wealth from the impatient to the disciplined. Cryptocurrency history confirms this again and again.