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Bitcoin Bottom or Decline in May? Top 3 Price Predictions from Experts Highlight Crucial Cost Basis

Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode say that Bitcoin's bottom level may be forming. Sentiment has shifted from Fear to Optimism, and three-quarters of surveyed investors now consider BTC undervalued.

The Crypto Charting Report Q2 2026 still highlights tensions in the Middle East and macroeconomic shocks as unpredictable factors. Experienced analysts are now divided on whether Bitcoin's bottom will hold or break through.

Sentiment Changes, On-Chain Signals Reverse

Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode combine survey data with on-chain readings in their latest report. They state that many cryptocurrencies may form a bottom in the near future, then recover again by the end of the second quarter.

The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss reading for Bitcoin has exited the Fear zone. At the end of April, it has returned to the Optimistic zone. About 75% of institutions and 71% of non-institutions now consider BTC undervalued.

Ethereum shows a similar shift. Short-term supply held for less than three months decreased by 38% in the first quarter. Long-term supply held for over a year increased by 1%. Speculators have exited, and confident holders are increasing their holdings.

Willy Woo and Ivan on Tech Opinions Split on Confirmation

Experienced on-chain analyst Willy Woo believes that the bottom is being tested. He estimates that the current average cost basis for Bitcoin investors is around US$79,000, so the chance of Bitcoin surpassing this level is now only about 30%.

“BTC is currently trying to form a bottom, but all variables are not yet complete; the next three to six weeks will be very decisive,” said Willy Woo.

According to this analyst, if Bitcoin can stay above US$65,000, then the bottom formation efforts will be more structurally solid.

Meanwhile, crypto trader Ivan Liljeqvist, known online as Ivan on Tech, is much less confident. He warns that Bitcoin's price:

Has not yet broken through the bull market support band
Has not yet printed a higher high
Has not yet shown a clear bullish candle.
Liljeqvist also highlights seasonal weakening patterns in May during bear cycles, and warns traders not to be complacent.

“Bitcoin experiences sharp declines every May in bear markets… don’t be complacent here,” he emphasizes.

Indeed, Bitcoin has previously weakened in May during past bear markets like 2018 and 2022 with significant drops of about 19% and 16%.

This seasonal pattern supports a cautious outlook amid the current correction phase. However, this historical tendency is not absolute, as some May months have shown gains despite ongoing market volatility.

“‘Sell in May’ is not gospel, but it’s also not a joke. May has given: big rallies +50% (2017, 2019), severe drops -35% (2021). One thing is certain: volatility is real. Don’t be reckless. Don’t overextend. May is more profitable for those patient enough to wait for opportunities than for the reckless,” a DeFi researcher explains.

Traders should carefully manage risk, monitor key support levels, and avoid overconfidence while paying attention to broader market signals this month.

Macro Factors as Obstacles to Bitcoin’s Bottom Level

Coinbase highlights significant uncertainty triggered by macroeconomic events and conflicts in the Middle East. The company considers it very difficult to take short-term trading positions at this time.

However, they assess that the current macro conditions are sufficiently positive to support Bitcoin’s bottom level in the near future.

The next three to six weeks will be very decisive. Traders will watch the US$65,000 support level and the average cost basis of US$79,000. If new shocks from the Middle East or central banks occur, all scenarios could change drastically.

If Bitcoin can hold, cautious optimism will prevail. Otherwise, May could once again become a harsh month.