I noticed something interesting while reviewing the analyses of serious crypto fund managers. CK Zheng from ZX Squared Capital suggests that we might see Bitcoin drop about 30% by 2026 if the downtrend really deepens.

To understand his logic, we need to go back to the four-year cycle. After the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin surged to over $126,000 in October 2025 — about 16 to 18 months later, which follows the classic pattern. Today, it's around $76,700, which generally aligns with this four-year cycle centered on the halving. It’s quite consistent actually.

What makes things worse, according to Zheng, is retail psychology. People buy during euphoria and panic during sell-offs, which reinforces each phase of the cycle. Meanwhile, institutional adoption remains limited — crypto ETFs and digital asset reserves account for only 10% of the overall market. So when prices fall, there aren't really large institutional buyers to stabilize the market.

The really problematic scenario: some companies holding Bitcoin as reserves might be forced to sell if they face repayment pressures. And that would create even more selling pressure on the market. This kind of dynamic can really amplify a decline.

So, according to ZX’s market analysis, we could see a significant correction. Stay tuned.