After the Genius Act was passed, payment stablecoins suddenly took center stage, and the returns on stablecoins were pointed out by the banking sector. This situation is interesting because it creates a breaking point between fintech and crypto. We can say that profit was in the past, payments are now, and AI is the future, but I’m not sure how consistent this classification is.

But one thing is certain: Meta has returned to stable currencies, Google has formed the AP2 alliance with over 60 companies, Stripe sees stablecoins and Agents as the future. Meanwhile, PayPal has already launched PYUSD, Coinbase has recommended the x402 protocol, but stocks are declining. These contradictions raise two questions for us: first, what is the source of payment in these new conflicts, and second, are Agents and stable currencies really the next big wave.

The fintech industry is entering a much more serious crisis than crypto. Why? Because the "open blockchain plus stable currency" model offered by crypto creates a completely closed system within itself. While old payment systems have become new centers of interest, fintech companies have still not fully bypassed banks after more than 20 years of effort. Although Stripe has reached a valuation of $159 billion, this figure is fundamentally based on speculation. At the same time, neobanks like Wise, Trade Republic, and Revolut are rising, and the entire fintech sector peaked during the pandemic. While PayPal was valued at $340 billion in 2021, it is now rumored to be selling. This shows how worried fintech is about the future.

Looking at the question of what stability is, fintech and crypto approaches are completely different. USDT has started to encircle Europe and America, which are being spun by the developing world. The $80 billion USDT on Tron meets individual transfer needs worldwide. In countries like Argentina and Nigeria, the dollarization of the currency is essentially a transformation into USDT. USDC, on the other hand, is more institutional and B2B focused. Although USDC dominates in DeFi, most CEXs price it in USDT.

According to a joint study by Artemish and McKinsey, the global stable currency transaction volume is $35 trillion, but this number is misleading. Actual stable currency payments are only about $390 billion, which is just 1% of all transactions. B2B payments amount to $226 billion, but this is only 0.01% of global B2B payments. Cross-border money transfers total $90 billion. These figures show that the adoption trend of stable currencies is still in its early stages.

When observing Tether’s recent moves, launching USAT together with Lutnick is not just a wedge strategy. Investing $200 million in Whop means buying the channel costs of 18 million users. This aims to encircle the first world with remittances from third-world immigrants. Companies involved in money transfers between Latin America and the US, South Asia and the Middle East, Africa and Europe will support USDT more widely. Stripe and Huma default to USDC, but this ignores the P2P nature of the crypto world.

Fintech companies are looking for new stories for IPOs. Meta and Google see their own channel sides as negotiation advantages. The banking sector wants to protect channel fees and cheap assets. Tether is making large investments in payment companies, imagining surrounding Circle. These four power sources are creating a new war in the payments field.

But there is a critical point here: pure transfer, the value of collection channels, is not very high. Although transaction volume is a clear number, the market is based on imagination and a fundamental lack. Stable currencies are seen as a default Agent payment tool, but no one is asking whether Agents are really necessary. The story that crypto wants to tell the world is to take stable currencies beyond the payment stage and ensure that money remains entirely on-chain. Whether fintech can progress as quickly as crypto on this path, we will see.