Maersk has just confirmed what many have already expected: it completely suspended operations through the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal starting in March. Now everything is rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope, and this is a major problem for those involved in global logistics.

The official reason is security. The company cited worsening maritime risk conditions and crew protection. According to Ship & Bunker, the carrier made it clear that this is a temporary measure until things normalize. But in the meantime, east-west trade faces real pressure.

The impact is immediate. Rerouting through the Cape adds several days to Asia–Europe and Middle East–Europe transit times. This creates a cascade: port delays, container shortages in export markets, freight costs rising with the surcharges carriers are passing on. And there's more: insurers are charging higher premiums due to the elevated risk profile. Booking deadlines are also stretching as networks reorganize.

On the energy side, the situation becomes even more delicate. Rystad Energy warned that a prolonged disruption in the Gulf of Suez and Hormuz could seriously tighten crude oil markets. Jorge León from Rystad described it as an effective traffic halt. Rabobank also indicated that restrictions on LNG exports, especially from Qatar, could raise benchmark gas prices if ships remain limited.

Intertanko issued US maritime alerts warning against navigation in parts of the Persian Gulf. Some ships are already rerouting to avoid hot spots. Risk experts characterize a complete physical blockade as unlikely, but acknowledge that volatility is real.

What to watch now: signs of de-escalation, restoration of routine naval escorts, changes in war risk insurance prices. Any sustained improvement in maritime security will likely come before a gradual return to normal schedules and the reversal of detours via the Cape of Good Hope. Meanwhile, those relying on tight schedules are feeling the weight of this change.