I have been observing something that constantly repeats in the capital markets, and honestly, it’s unsettling how predictable everything becomes when you look at historical patterns.

Whenever there is a major geopolitical conflict, we see the same script: first panic, then clarification, and finally the rebound. Over the past 36 years, this has happened exactly four times, and each time the capital market reacts almost the same way.

Think back to 1991, when Iraq invaded Kuwait. Oil shot up from $20 to $40 in two months. The S&P 500 plummeted nearly 20%. It was chaotic. But here’s the fascinating part: on the day Desert Storm began, when it was finally known what would happen, the market did exactly the opposite of what everyone expected. Oil dropped more than 30% in a single day. Stocks rebounded strongly.

What most people don’t understand is that the capital market isn’t afraid of war itself. It fears uncertainty. That is the real killer.

Twenty years later, in 2003, something similar happened with Iraq. Markets fell during months of diplomatic tension, but the absolute bottom occurred one week before missiles flew toward Baghdad. When reality finally arrived, the market interpreted that “the worst was already priced in.” And a four-year bull market began.

Then came 2022 with Russia and Ukraine. Here, things were different, and that’s the key point. Russia controls global energy, Ukraine is Europe’s granary. Brent crude oil surpassed $130. But this time, it wasn’t just emotional panic. It was a real breakdown of supply chains. That changed everything. Inflation skyrocketed, the Federal Reserve had to raise rates aggressively, and in 2022 something strange happened: stocks and bonds fell together. The Nasdaq dropped more than 30%.

Now, when I observe how the capital market reacts to the current tensions in the Middle East, I need to ask an important question: is this just temporary panic or a real black swan?

The logic is simple. If the conflict disrupts oil supply, prices explode. That fuels inflation. Central banks can’t lower rates. Risk assets fall. Cryptocurrencies, which behave like a highly elastic Nasdaq, suffer first.

But here’s what I’ve learned: most people try to make money during these crises, and that’s exactly what institutions expect. When you see alarming headlines about war, that’s when Wall Street is already prepared to take profits.

If you’re an ordinary investor, your goal shouldn’t be to predict the capital market with surgical precision. It should be to preserve capital. That means: having 20-30% in cash, 10-15% in gold or energy ETFs as a “safety net,” concentrating the rest in broad indices rather than high-risk individual stocks, and if you hold cryptocurrencies, reducing volatile altcoins and keeping Bitcoin or stablecoins on regulated platforms.

One thing you should never do: use leverage. A ceasefire announcement can make oil drop 10% in minutes. With leverage, you’d be liquidated before seeing the long-term recovery.

The uncomfortable truth is that the capital market will continue doing what it has always done: price uncertainty with brutal coldness. But if you understand the pattern, you have an advantage. Uncertainty is temporary. Order always gets rebuilt. And those who stay calm while others sell in panic are the ones who benefit afterward.

Remember: never bet on the end of the world. Even if you win, no one would pay you.