Recently, I came across a market viewpoint that’s definitely worth paying attention to.

Many people are feeling pessimistic about the crypto market right now, and technical analysts are also saying that the rally is already over. But if you look closely from a macro perspective, things could be completely different. The global liquidity indicator is especially crucial—it has a correlation of up to 90% with BTC and an even higher correlation of 97% with the Nasdaq. Since 2012, this correlation has been very stable, with an annual growth rate of about 10% that is continuing to accelerate.

Overall liquidity in the United States is currently in a loose state, and several factors are pushing liquidity to expand even further. Banks are boosting liquidity through credit and government bond issuance, and tax refunds are also entering banks’ balance sheets—both of which increase credit creation. The rate-hike cycle has already ended, and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates further, which will directly raise disposable income and, along with it, risk appetite would also rise.

Policy is also changing. The CLARITY bill is expected to pass, and this would be a major event for the crypto industry. Banks and asset management institutions are all waiting to use this technology. Stablecoins are developing at a fast pace as well: last year, issuance grew by 50%, and trading volume has already reached the level of tens of billions of dollars. The U.S. government’s stance toward cryptocurrencies has reached a historic high—this is not a small matter.

From a technical standpoint, the market is currently in a historically oversold condition. The DeMark indicators show overlapping signals on both the weekly and daily charts, which usually means a very strong reversal signal. The next two weeks are a key window—if any weakness shows up during this period, it could complete the daily and weekly indicator signals, pointing to a full reversal of the trend.

Of course, there are risks too, mainly whether oil prices can stay at high levels. But overall, factors such as liquidity, policy, and the technical picture are all pointing in the same direction. Personally, I believe that with this combination of moves, there should be solid upside potential ahead.