Recently, Bloomberg energy analyst Javier Blas posted about the Iran situation and whether the risk to the oil market is really serious. His take is quite interesting.

Basically, his point is that even with tensions in the Middle East, it doesn't automatically mean a major oil shock will happen. We all know that Iran attacks impact oil prices, but the actual damage to supply is limited. The market's real concern is if tensions escalate further and both sides target energy infrastructure—such as oil fields, refineries, and export terminals. But so far, that hasn't happened.

I'm interested in his observation that Iran has not yet weaponized oil as a strategic tool, and Israel and the US haven't targeted Iranian energy facilities. So technically, there's room for escalation, but we’re not there yet.

Regarding prices, expectations are realistic. Many traders speculate that prices could reach $100 per barrel, but compare that to historical highs—$147.50 in 2008 and $139 in 2022 after the Ukraine war started. So even if there's a spike, it won't reach the crazy levels we've seen before.

What's interesting on the financial side is that the oil market remains surprisingly bullish despite weak physical demand. Bullish positions are at all-time high levels over the past decade. The last time there was a major Iran-Israel conflict, traders were caught off guard and panic bought, triggering a huge price rally. This time, the market is more prepared.

So, bottom line: there is a risk to energy supply, but it's not a doomsday scenario. Traders are more prepared this year compared to past conflicts. Truly interesting times in energy markets.