🟠 $250K BTC this year? Traders are skeptical and bring up “sell in May”

Bitcoin is still roughly 40% below the prior peak near $126K. Some loud bulls still stick to a $250K year-end target, but a lot of traders aren’t buying the idea without clearer proof.

📊 Why the market is cautious
— Veteran trader Peter Brandt points to a simple daily “channel”: BTC hit resistance near $79.5K and could slide back toward $69K
— If price breaks below the lower edge of that channel, the conversation can shift to levels below $50K
— On halving cycles: tops historically showed up 12–18 months after halving. This cycle peaked in Oct 2025 (about 17–18 months after the 2024 halving). Now we’re well past that window and price is lower, so many think the cycle top may already be in

🗓 “Sell in May” in midterm years
Another narrative getting attention: in US midterm election years, BTC has often seen big drops starting around May. The examples traders cite are 2014, 2018, 2022. If that pattern repeats, some even talk about a theoretical $30K zone.

📌 Bottom line

$250K is a catchy headline, but the market wants confirmation first. The near-term map is simple: can BTC hold above $80K, or does it drift back toward $69K again? A more realistic upside target many mention is $100K–$150K if conditions stay supportive. Keep alerts on and watch the weekly closes.

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