I believe that to understand the current market situation, we should focus on global liquidity. It is no coincidence that there has been a 90% correlation between Bitcoin and global liquidity since 2012. With the NASDAQ 100, this relationship is even stronger, at nearly 97%. This indicates the kind of macro environment we are in.

Currently, the annual growth rate of liquidity is about 10%, and there are no signs of slowdown yet. GMI financial conditions tend to lead global liquidity by about six months, and they are now at comfortable levels. There was a slight pause in US liquidity, but it is now rapidly recovering. This signal is very important because it usually precedes crypto market movements by three months.

The methods banks are adopting include the eSLR mechanism, where they improve liquidity by issuing Treasuries and increasing credit. This liquidity is also increasing. Tax refunds go directly into bank balance sheets, boosting credit creation capacity. This means even more liquidity will flow in the coming months.

At the policy level, things are also changing. The US is moving toward lowering interest rates, which will give investors more income and make them more willing to take risks. A significant law is about to be passed for crypto, allowing large banks and asset managers to use this technology. Stablecoins are growing rapidly, with a 50% increase last year, and this pace is still accelerating. Government support is also at historic highs.

From a technical perspective, the market is in an extremely oversold condition. The DeMark indicator will show very strong support in two weeks. Both daily and weekly indicators are about to complete, pointing toward a major reversal. Considering Bitcoin’s position around $77K , the next two weeks will be crucial.

Risk factors include oil prices, which are still at higher levels. But given all indicators, I believe we will see more upward momentum in the near future. The macro environment, liquidity, policy support, and technical signals all point in the same direction.