Bitcoin is undergoing continuous deleveraging, but the market has not yet reached the bottom of this cycle. Looking at CME data, it’s possible to see that both open interest and the demand curve for long exposure have been declining since the beginning of 2025, following a pattern similar to what happened in 2022. What stands out is that, despite this compression, the slope of the demand curve remains positive — something that only changes when there is a true capitulation.

The numbers speak for themselves: Bitcoin futures open interest has fallen about 47%, almost the same 45% drop seen in 2022. This reflects a gradual unwinding of positions, not a sharp collapse. The current demand curve signals weakened bullish conviction among traders, with less willingness to pay a premium for leveraged exposure. Longer-term contracts still trade at a premium, but the trend is clear: the market is repositioning.

The cyclical bottom is probably still to come. Historically, these bottoms only form when the futures demand curve turns negative, indicating backwardation and sharp deleveraging. Until then, price rallies may face resistance. The combination of declining open interest and this still-positive demand curve suggests we are in a consolidating regime, with more pressure ahead before a definitive capitulation.