🚨 FED DAY SETUP

Rates are expected to hold, so the decision is not the story. The focus is Powell’s tone.
This is not a projections meeting, so small wording changes matter more than usual. Higher energy prices complicate the outlook and reduce the odds of near term cuts.
Stocks have stalled with de-risking under the surface. Yields are rising as rate cut expectations get pushed out.
Bitcoin is holding but momentum is fading. Institutional demand is weakening and price is slipping below key cost bases. Regulatory tone is improving, but liquidity is still the driver.
This is a tone driven market. Dovish keeps risk alive. Hawkish extends the chop. War and energy remain the wild card.